Inflation is hurting lower-income Americans. They're being more cautious with their spending due to higher expenses and debt servicing. On the other hand, affluent consumers continue to spend, leading to a "K-shaped consumer" pattern. Despite high employment, the pressure of rising living costs is taking its toll on lower-income Americans.
Global economic prospects are grim, warns the World Economic Forum's president. High debt levels, inflation, and geopolitical tensions pose threats. Developing nations may benefit from artificial intelligence, but it's crucial to avoid a trade war and excessive debt that could lead to recession.
Despite aggressive interest rate hikes, inflation remains stubbornly high, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. This persistence is due to factors such as excess consumer spending, persistent supply-chain bottlenecks, and a booming job market. As a result, the Fed may be forced to maintain elevated rates or even consider additional hikes, despite the risk of triggering a recession. The economic situation shows some signs of strain, but so far, a broader downturn has been averted.
In recent weeks, first-time unemployment claims in the United States have consistently stayed at 212,000, sparking some concerns. However, officials attribute this stability to seasonal adjustments in the data. This indicates a steady jobs picture, with little volatility in unemployment over the past five weeks. The surprising consistency suggests that seasonal factors are effectively removing fluctuations from state data, providing a more accurate reflection of the labor market.
The U.S. economy might face trouble in 2025 if the Federal Reserve (Fed) doesn't raise interest rates soon. Interest rate changes usually quickly affect the economy, but recently they have started to have an effect much later. So, if rates stay high until 2025, when many businesses and individuals will need to refinance their current debt, we might see more financial problems.
The UK economy grew slightly in February, ending a technical recession. While the GDP is still below its pre-pandemic levels, it shows signs of recovery, with construction output falling but production and services sectors growing. However, inflation remains high, and forecasts for interest rate cuts have been revised due to unexpected price increases in the US. The Bank of England is expected to cut rates four times this year, starting in June.
