The Federal Reserve is now considering waiting until at least September before cutting interest rates, which is later than the expected timeline. The central bank is focused on combating inflation, which is still elevated at around 3%. Some economists believe a rate cut may not happen until 2025. Despite the resilient economy, higher rates for longer could pose risks to the labor market and finance sector.
Strong retail sales and a positive job market suggest the economy is holding up, prompting economists to expect fewer interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve than previously anticipated. However, experts warn that risks like geopolitical tensions and a volatile stock market could lead to a potential downturn. Investors should consider defensive sectors like utilities and avoid chasing high-growth sectors with elevated valuations and suppressed volatility.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will discuss the economy and monetary policies between their respective countries. The market expects the Fed to maintain steady interest rates until September, despite rising inflation. This speech will likely be Powell's last before the next Federal Reserve meeting.
The US economy is not experiencing sufficient inflation to meet Federal Reserve goals. Therefore, interest rate cuts are unlikely. The current rate of inflation is above the Fed's target of 2%, and recent data suggests it will take longer than expected to achieve this goal.
The U.S. economy might face trouble in 2025 if the Federal Reserve (Fed) doesn't raise interest rates soon. Interest rate changes usually quickly affect the economy, but recently they have started to have an effect much later. So, if rates stay high until 2025, when many businesses and individuals will need to refinance their current debt, we might see more financial problems.
Inflation has persisted at 3.5% despite the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, leaving markets on edge. While the economy remains strong, the Fed prioritizes inflation control over interest rate cuts, posing a dilemma. Experts discuss the possibility of the Fed's policy being too loose, while others advise maintaining it due to inflation and financial risks. The ongoing inflation has resulted in falling real incomes, becoming a political challenge for the Biden administration as it affects consumers and households.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) may lower interest rates this year despite ongoing high inflation. This is according to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who believes the Fed may struggle to meet its 2% inflation target. Fink suggests inflation could stabilize around 2.8-3%, which he would consider a victory. Despite current market expectations for a more dovish Fed, some officials remain cautious until they witness a significant decline in inflation.
Wholesale inflation increased slightly in March, but not as much as expected. Over the past year, inflation has risen 2.1%, which could keep overall inflation high. Despite this, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits has decreased, suggesting the economy is still growing.
A recently released inflation report raised concerns on Wall Street. The "supercore inflation" reading, which excludes volatile items like food, energy, housing, and rent, is rising rapidly. This reading has been above 8% at an annualized pace for the last three months. Economists are concerned that this type of inflation is not easily controlled by interest rate increases and likely indicates a more long-term problem.
Inflation increased faster than expected in March, fueled by rising shelter and energy costs. The consumer price index rose 3.5%, higher than economists' predictions. Traders have now pushed back the expected date for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve from June to September. This inflation spike is unlikely to prompt the Fed to cut rates anytime soon, as it reinforces the notion that inflation is stickier than previously anticipated.
The World Trade Organization predicts global trade will rise 2.6% in 2024 after a 1.2% drop in 2023. This is expected due to lower inflation and interest rates. Despite this, geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, could disrupt trade. The WTO also observed increasing trade fragmentation along political lines, with trade growth between opposing blocks being slower than within them.
One Federal Reserve official warns that interest rates may need to rise instead of being cut to control inflation. Despite progress in lowering inflation, risks remain high due to supply chain issues, geopolitical factors, government spending, and a tight labor market. The official emphasizes caution in easing policy too soon as it could lead to a resurgence of inflation.
