HomeFinance NewsEconomyGlobal Trade to Soar: Despite Geopolitical Risks, Economic Recovery Ignites

Global Trade to Soar: Despite Geopolitical Risks, Economic Recovery Ignites


WTO forecasts rebound in global trade but keeps geopolitical risks in focus


The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts a gradual recovery in global trade.

After a 1.2% decline in 2023 due to inflationary pressures, trade volumes are expected to rebound by 2.6% in 2024 and further by 3.3% in 2025.

This forecast is attributed to anticipated decreases in inflation and a return to more regular economic policies.

The report highlights a “broad-based” rebound, including in Europe, which faced significant trade volume declines in 2023 due to geopolitical tensions and the energy crisis.

Overall, while global trade has remained resilient, the WTO emphasizes that geopolitical uncertainties pose a potential threat.

In particular, trade tensions between the United States and China remain a concern, especially regarding alleged unfair practices in the green technology sector.

The WTO report warns of trade fragmentation along geopolitical lines, with slower trade growth between the two hypothetical blocks based on U.N. voting patterns.

Despite these risks, the WTO reports a 3.4% anticipated increase in Asian exports for both 2024 and 2025, acknowledging the potential for surges in specific sectors.

The report serves as a valuable assessment of the current state and future prospects of international trade, providing insights for businesses and policymakers alike.

  • Overall sentiment: neutral
  • Positive

    “The World Trade Organization on Wednesday said that it expects global trade volumes to increase by 2.6% in 2024 following a 1.2% decline in 2023.”

    “The trade rebound is expected to be “broad-based,” including across Europe, which experienced some of the deepest falls in trade volumes last year as a result of geopolitical tensions and the energy crisis caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”


    “In a report, the WTO warned that geopolitical tensions continue to pose a significant risk to its outlook as signs of trade fragmentation rise.”

    “Overall, world trade has been “remarkably resilient” over recent years, rising above its pre-Covid-19 pandemic peak in late 2023, the WTO report concluded. However, the organization warned that geopolitical tensions could still pose a risk to its outlook.”

    “Trade tensions between the U.S. and China resurfaced this week, when U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she would not rule out possible tariffs on Beijing, if it is found to be engaging in unfair trade practices.”

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