Investors should consider commodities due to global economic growth, particularly driven by China. Commodities like copper, gold, and energy are performing well, supported by demand and government spending. VanEck CEO Jan van Eck emphasizes the positive outlook for commodities, as evidenced by a recent increase in China's manufacturing activity and the momentum of copper prices.
China's economy needs a boost, but it's struggling because people don't believe home prices will increase. As a result, people aren't borrowing money to buy homes or invest in businesses. The government is hesitant to provide more stimulus because they view their previous program as a failure that led to overheating and speculation. To avoid a worse economic downturn, China needs to convince people that home prices will rise and encourage borrowing. This will help jump-start activity and drive down risk.
Oil prices have hit their highest point in five months due to geopolitical tensions and increased demand from manufacturing and cold weather. The US is contributing to supply concerns as a larger exporter, but some analysts believe the surge may not last. They suggest that historical market resilience and US production increases could lead to price declines. However, speculative activity may also be driving up prices, and gasoline prices are rising as well, potentially impacting consumer demand.
China's economy is ending the first quarter of 2023 with positive momentum. A business survey shows job growth, increased retail spending, and revenue growth. Official data reports strong numbers in retail sales, industrial production, and investment. Despite rising interest rates, borrowing has slowed down. The government has set a growth target of 5% for the year.
Tensions between Europe and China are growing as China's industries produce goods more cheaply, leading to fears that European industries will struggle to compete and could face severe losses. This overproduction in China can result in price wars and ultimately threaten the stability of the European economy. Europe is China's largest regional trading partner, and experts worry that the situation could worsen as China promotes high-end manufacturing to boost its self-sufficiency.
China's economy is doing better than expected. Retail sales, industrial production, and investment all grew more than analysts predicted in the first two months of the year. Online retail sales also increased significantly. However, consumer demand is still weak, and investment in real estate has fallen. The government is considering further policy easing measures to boost growth.
