In early 2024, it was expected that inflation would gradually subside and the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates. However, recent data has shown that inflation is more persistent than anticipated, with rising prices for goods and services across the board. This has caused the Fed to reconsider its plans and delay any potential rate cuts. The news has led to market volatility and concerns that the battle against inflation will be prolonged.
The Federal Reserve will take time to decide when to lower interest rates as inflation remains high. Chairman Jerome Powell said they need "greater confidence" that inflation will consistently fall towards the Fed's target of 2%. While the economy is still strong, the Fed is waiting for more data to confirm the recent increase in inflation is temporary.
Oil prices surged in early 2023, driven by high demand and supply cuts by OPEC. OPEC is unlikely to change these cuts anytime soon, keeping supply low. Additionally, consolidation in major oil-producing areas suggests more controlled production, further supporting prices. Investors are keeping an eye on the Energy Select Sector Fund (XLE), which tracks oil prices and has seen strong performance recently.
Inflation remains elevated despite a recent slowdown, with February prices rising 3.2% year-over-year. Gasoline, shelter, and services like sporting events and tax preparation saw significant increases. While real wages are improving, inflation has eroded purchasing power. Interest rates, used by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation, may not be cut soon, affecting borrowers with high-interest debt.
