The Federal Reserve (Fed) is monitoring inflation and using core PCE inflation as a key indicator. Despite a recent decline in inflation, core PCE inflation remains slightly above the Fed's target of 2%. The Fed's goal is to keep inflation around this level to maintain price stability. While inflation has shown no signs of returning to target, the Fed is cautiously optimistic that its current policy can address risks and support economic growth by adjusting interest rates as needed.
The Federal Reserve is now considering waiting until at least September before cutting interest rates, which is later than the expected timeline. The central bank is focused on combating inflation, which is still elevated at around 3%. Some economists believe a rate cut may not happen until 2025. Despite the resilient economy, higher rates for longer could pose risks to the labor market and finance sector.
Tomorrow's Consumer Price Index report will reveal inflation levels, influencing the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. If inflation is high, markets may decline. A stable core CPI suggests inflation is under control, potentially boosting markets. Rate cuts are expected, but strong earnings and coordinated central bank actions could also affect the market. The report will provide insight into inflation's trajectory and the Fed's potential future actions.
Consumer spending rebounded noticeably in February, despite being corrected for the extra spending day, leap day. The Retail Monitor's core measure, excluding autos, gas, and restaurants, rose 0.95%. Sporting goods, hobby, and health and personal care stores performed exceptionally well, with online and nonstore sales continuing to surge.
