While overall prices have increased (inflation), there are pockets of deflation (price decreases) in various industries. These include household goods (furniture, appliances), some groceries (apples), travel expenses, and durable goods (vehicles). Deflation is primarily due to supply chains improving, demand decreasing, and the strong US dollar making imports cheaper. However, quality improvements over time (e.g., in electronics) can also appear as price declines in government data.
The US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, stated that future talks between the US and China will focus on the need for Beijing to shift its industrial and economic policies. Yellen believes China's overcapacity in certain sectors has been harming other countries' economies. She and Chinese officials discussed Beijing's economic plans, but further details were not provided. The topics of national security and information exchange on economic tools were also discussed during Yellen's visit to China.
The Federal Reserve is carefully considering interest rate cuts while balancing concerns about inflation. Having previously made mistakes by prematurely loosening policy, the central bank aims to avoid repeating those errors. While the economy is showing signs of growth, officials recognize the risks of allowing inflation to persist for too long. Therefore, they may take a cautious approach to rate adjustments, keeping them higher for a longer period to ensure price stability.
Despite ongoing inflation, certain categories are experiencing price drops. Egg prices have plummeted by 17%, while health insurance, laundry equipment, and car rentals have also seen significant declines. While the Federal Reserve aims for 2% inflation, core inflation remains elevated at 3.8%, indicating that it will take time to bring prices under control. Despite the challenges, real wages have risen since 2019, and global inflation is expected to moderate in the future.
China experienced inflation in February (0.7% year-on-year) after months of deflation. Despite this, some analysts believe deflation still looms and consumers remain cautious. However, Shaun Rein of China Market Research Group suggests investors consider re-entering the Chinese market as valuations are low. China's economic challenges over the past year have led to declines in stock markets, but Rein believes long-term growth prospects are promising, especially in domestic neighborhood electric vehicle manufacturers.
