- ORIGINAL NEWS
Job gains expected again in March. Here are all the things to look for in Friday’s report
- SUMMARY
The March nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show solid hiring, with a projected gain of 200,000 jobs.
However, there are concerns about the reliability of recent job numbers, as initial reports have been revised downward significantly in subsequent estimates.
The labor market has shown resilience despite expectations of a jobs-led recession, but there are signs of potential weakness.
Household employment, which measures individual workers rather than total jobs, has declined by nearly 1 million since November.
Also, full-time employment has dropped slightly, while part-time employment has increased.
The number of temporary workers has also declined, a traditional sign of an economic slowdown.
The composition of new jobs is also important to watch.
While overall hiring may be strong, there could be cracks in the employment armor.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will be closely monitoring the report for signs of inflation pressures.
Average hourly earnings are projected to have increased in March, though at a slower pace than the annual gain.
The Fed is expected to maintain its course of raising interest rates even if the job market remains strong.
Markets are anticipating a slowdown in rate increases starting in June, but some analysts believe the Fed will wait until July before initiating any cuts.
- NEWS SENTIMENT CHECK
- Overall sentiment:
neutral
Positive
“Job growth is expected to come in at 200,000 for the period, according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast.”
“Along with numbers, composition is important, namely where the growth is coming from and whether there are any cracks in the employment armor. The job market’s resilience has confounded many economists who spent the past two years searching for a jobs-led recession that never happened.”
Negative
“For all of 2023, revisions took 520,000 off the initial estimates — there are three readings in total — countering a historical trend in which the final numbers are generally higher than the first readings.”
“Still, there are areas of concern.Household employment, which counts individual workers rather than total jobs and is used to calculate the unemployment rate, has fallen by nearly 1 million since November.”