HomeFinance NewsEconomyInflation Expectations Soar: Fed's Worst Nightmare Unfolding?

Inflation Expectations Soar: Fed’s Worst Nightmare Unfolding?


Long-term inflation expectations rise, spelling possible trouble for the Fed, survey shows


Consumers are growing increasingly skeptical of the Federal Reserve’s ability to control inflation, a survey has revealed.

While expectations for inflation over the next year have remained steady at 3%, long-term projections have surged, with consumers anticipating inflation rates of 2.7% over three years and 2.9% over five years.

These expectations are significantly higher than the Fed’s target of 2% inflation, suggesting that the central bank may need to maintain a tight monetary policy for an extended period.

Inflation expectations are closely monitored by policymakers because they can influence actual inflation behavior.

Elevated expectations can lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy, where businesses and consumers anticipate and respond to higher prices by raising their own prices and increasing their spending.

The survey also shows that consumers are concerned about job prospects, with the perceived likelihood of job loss rising to 14.5% in the next year.

However, there are some positive signs: rent inflation expectations have decreased, providing hope that shelter costs, a major driver of inflation, may begin to moderate.

Overall, the survey indicates that the Fed faces a challenging task in bringing inflation back to its 2% target and maintaining low inflation expectations.

The central bank may need to keep interest rates high for longer than anticipated to curb inflation and prevent it from spiraling out of control.

However, this could potentially slow economic growth and dampen consumer sentiment.

  • Overall sentiment: negative
  • Positive

    “Other inflation measures in the February survey offered some hope.”

    “Most notably, the outlook for rent costs decreased to 6.1%, down 0.3 percentage point for the lowest reading since December 2020.”


    “Consumers increasingly doubt the Federal Reserve can achieve its inflation goals anytime soon, according to a survey Monday from the New York Federal Reserve.”

    “All three are well ahead of the Fed’s 2% goal for 12-month inflation, indicating the central bank may need to keep policy tighter for longer.”

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